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February 2012 NFL Events

Calendar of NFL Events for February 2012 brought to you by bettingfootballsystem.com

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SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (4-7) at JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-8)
2011-12-05

Sportsbook.com Line & Total: San Diego -3 (-125) & 39
Opening Line & Total: Chargers -3 & 41

The Jaguars play their first game since 2003 without head coach Jack Del Rio when they host the slumping Chargers on Monday Night Football.

Del Rio, who posted a 68-71 record in his tenure with Jacksonville, was fired on Tuesday and will be replaced by defensive coordinator Mel Tucker, who hasnt decided on which one of his subpar quarterbacks (Blaine Gabbert or Luke McCown) will start on Monday night. But in terms of making mistakes, no QB has been more turnover-prone than San Diegos Philip Rivers who leads the NFL with 17 interceptions, tossing 10 picks during his teams current six-game losing skid. The Jags defense has been inconsistent all year but, outside of the Saints, no one has moved the ball on them in Jacksonville. They also have the most consistent running back in the NFL in Maurice Jones-Drew, who has rushed for 80+ yards in all but one of his teams 11 games and leads the AFC with 1,040 rushing yards on the season.

The Chargers have a chance to win one against a Jaguars team that doesnt pose a threat to their depleted secondary. They also had little trouble throwing on Jacksonvilles secondary last year in a 38-13 blowout win. Rivers tossed 3 TD passes and finished with 334 yards through the air. Despite last weeks OT loss to Denver, the Chargers beleaguered offensive line played much better, allowing the team to rush for 185 yards. Ryan Mathews ran for 137 of those yards on just 22 carries (6.2 YPC), proving that his bothersome knee injury is close to 100 percent. No. 1 WR Vincent Jackson continued his roller coaster season, catching only two passes for 25 yards against the Broncos. For the season, Jackson has six games of fewer than 50 receiving yards and four games of 100+ yards. He could have another down week facing Jacksonvilles fourth-best pass defense (183 YPG).

The Jaguars QB situation is certainly unsettled. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbert has the worst passer rating in the entire league (62.2), and he was benched in last weeks loss to Houston in favor of Luke McCown. The eight-year veteran started the season as the No. 1 QB, but lost his job in the middle of Week 2 after throwing four interceptions against the Jets. McCown was serviceable in the Texans game (7-of-11, 62 yards) but his career passer rating of 68.5 (6.4 YPA, 9 TD, 14 INT) doesnt inspire much confidence. Not only has Jones-Drew done the job rushing the football, but hes now getting more involved in the passing game, tallying 11 receptions in the past three weeks. He had just 12 catches in his first eight games this year. San Diegos secondary should be able to limit whichever QB is under center, but its run defense will have a hard time stopping Jones-Drew. The Chargers currently place 25th in the NFL in run defense, allowing 132 rushing YPG.

NFL: Late Afternoon Kickoffs (4:05 PM ET, CBS & FOX)
2009-12-04

The NFL has a very light schedule in the late afternoon on Sunday. In fact, there are only three contests, and only one of them has any real intrigue. Here’s a look at all three contests, with a pick on the big Cowboys-Giants clash.

(355) SAN DIEGO at (356) CLEVELAND

San Diego looks to continue its march towards a potential bye in the first round of the AFC playoffs when it travels to Cleveland. Since opening 2-3 in ’09, the Chargers have won six straight games to assume the lead in the AFC West Division. However, the Broncos are just a game back and nipping at their heels so every game is important the rest of the way. After this game, San Diego will face a difficult 3-game set but this is the time where they have typically turned it on under Norv Turner, going 12-2 SU & ATS in post-Thanksgiving holiday weekend games in his tenure. Cleveland has yet to win in four games at home in ’09, and is 0-9 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in its L9 as hosts overall. San Diego owns a 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS edge in its L7 games vs. the Browns.

(357) SAN FRANCISCO at (358) SEATTLE

Seattle returns home for the first time since November 8th, a welcomed event considering how much better the Seahawks have played at home in ’09 as compared to on the road. As host, they are 3-2 SU & ATS, outscoring foes by over 10 PPG. On the road, they’ve gone just 1-5 SU & ATS. They have also not lost a late season game ATS at home since ’06, going 7-0-1 ATS in post-Thanksgiving weekend games in that span. The 49ers won the September matchup between these teams, 23-10, gaining a season high 256 yards rushing. They are 1-4 SU on the road, but 3-0-2 ATS. Dating back to mid-’08, San Francisco is 6-2-2 ATS in away games. They have also swept their three games vs. NFC West rivals so far, both SU & ATS. Seattle is on a run of 12-4 ATS as a favorite.

The other game pits the Cowboys & Giants. Here is a pick on that contest from the StatFox Platinum Sheet: I see a lot of NFL commentators remarking about the importance of the Giants’ next two games in their quest for a playoff berth in 2009. My thought is this…Are the Giants really a playoff team? Would a playoff-caliber club be saddled by a trend like this one: NY GIANTS are 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season. The average score was NY GIANTS 20.2, OPPONENT 31.7 - (Rating = 2*). At the same time, Dallas is 2-games better in the standings than New York, and was able to escape its recent offensive rut by still winning two of three games. Now that is what good teams do, and in this case, our good team will be motivated by revenge as well: Play On - Any team (DALLAS) - revenging a same season loss against opponent, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (59-27 over the last 10 seasons.) (68.6%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*). Look for the Cowboys to put a first nail in the G-Men coffin for ’09. Play: Dallas

NFL: New Orleans at Chicago (8:15 PM ET, NFL Network)
2008-12-11

After playing for the NFC championship in 2006, New Orleans and Chicago are in danger of missing the playoffs for a second straight season. Both teams will post a better record than last year’s 7-9 mark, but the way the conference is shaping up it could take as many as 10 victories to qualify for postseason play, which means the loser is probably all but done.

In the suddenly strapping NFC South, New Orleans (9-4 ATS) sits alone in last place with a record of 7-6. A 29-25 home win over Atlanta kept its slim playoff hopes alive while dropping the surprising Falcons to 8-5. If the Saints were in the NFC North they’d have fewer hurdles to climb.

New Orleans has struggled mightily in true road tilts, winning just one of six games while allowing an average of 28.3 points per game. The Saints gave up 29 points in Washington, 34 in Denver, 30 in Carolina, 34 in Atlanta, 20 in Kansas City and 23 in Tampa Bay. Their offense, which ranks first in the NFL in total yards (405.8 per game), overcame the defensive deficiency only against the Chiefs. The offense drops four points per game as visitors and the Saints are 2-5 ATS off a straight up win. Including the aforementioned NFC title game, it’s the third straight year the Saints will play in blustery conditions at Soldier Field.

At 7-6 after beating Jacksonville, the Bears (6-6-1 ATS) are just one game behind first-place Minnesota. Chicago advanced to Super Bowl XLI with a 39-14 triumph over New Orleans on Jan. 21, 2007, then 11 months later won last year’s regular-season finale by a 33-25 margin. Chicago survived each time despite allowing Drew Brees to pass for more than 300 yards. He had 354 yards in the playoff game and 320 more last Dec. 30, but he received little support from the defense and special teams. Chicago is 6-0 ATS in home games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better in the second half of the season.

Brees, who seems capable of throwing for 300 yards in his sleep, will test a Chicago pass defense that ranks 28th in the league. The best thing the Bears can do to counter is control the time of possession with busy rookie running back Matt Forte, who has been a bright spot with 1,476 total yards and 10 touchdowns. The Bears rookie has a good balance of speed and power, which allows him to break tackles and make guys miss. He also is a harder hitter than people realize.

Sportsbook.com has Chicago as a three-point choice with a total of 45. The Bears off last week’s win are 2-9 ATS after a victory. The total could be important with Chicago 16-4 OVER as a home favorite since 2006 and New Orleans 15-5 OVER in road games off a home win against a division rival.

This will be another NFL Network contest starting at 8:15 Eastern and a number of Thursday night angles appear. When both teams were favored in prior contest, the UNDER is 12-6. Another situation shows when both clubs were favored in last game, the home team is 14-6-1 ATS. The Saints are ungodly 1-7 ATS on this day of the week.

StatFox Forecaster- New Orleans covers
StatFox Power Line- New Orleans by 2
StatFox OutPlay Factor- Chicago by 1

NFL: Sunday Late Afternoon Starts (4:05 PM ET, FOX & CBS)
2008-10-03

There are four different NFL late afternoon starts, opening up numerous wagering opportunities for those looking to capitalize. The big game is in Denver where two 3-1 teams meet, the Buccaneers and Broncos. 90% of the money as of Friday was on the hosts, but that could change before the 4:05 PM ET kickoff. Be sure to check the latest numbers on this game and the three other before putting your money down. Here’s a quick look at the Tampa-Denver and Buffalo-Arizona games.

(421) TAMPA BAY at (422) DENVER
Denver’s defensive ineptitude finally cost the team a game last week, and it was an embarrassing one. The Broncos yielded 370 yards and 33 points to a Chiefs team that had lost 12 straight contests and mustered just 30 points in its prior three games of ’08. For ‘08, the Broncos are a respectable 3-1, but are now just a game ahead of San Diego in the AFC West and still yielding more than 412 yards per game defensively. Here they’ll play as a 4-point opening line favorite against a Tampa Bay team that shares the same won-lost mark. From a trend perspective, the Bucs have a couple of edges: TAMPA BAY is 16-5 ATS in its L21 games vs. excellent passing teams averaging >=7.5 passing yards/attempt. Plus, Denver is just 6-18 ATS in its L24 games as a favorite.

(425) BUFFALO at (426) ARIZONA
Buffalo is one of just two teams that are 4-0 at this point in the NFL season, and the Bills look to head into their bye week with a 5th straight win, this time at Arizona. However, a win would be the franchise’s first pre-bye week outright victory in 10 years. They are 2-6-1 ATS in that span. Other angles point well to HC Dick Jauron’s team though, who is 11-2 ATS in its L13 games versus excellent passing teams averaging >= 7.5 yards per pass attempt. The Bills are also on a run of 17-4 ATS against the NFC West Division. The Cardinals have lost back-to-back games after starting 2-0. They allowed 56 points to the Jets and 80 in the last two weeks overall, the most in a two-game span since ’02. Arizona is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS vs. the AFC under Ken Whisenhunt.

NFL - Miami at New England (4:15 PM ET – CBS)
2007-12-21

Pointspreads are coming back down to earth in New England games as despite projections a couple weeks back of the first 30-point line in NFL history, the Patriots will be laying just 22 to the Dolphins on Sunday.

HC Bill Belichick’s team has clinched home field advantage in the playoffs but still has that one other goal in mind…a perfect season. Miami is riding high after winning its first game of ’07 over Baltimore, after which it proceeded to celebrate as if winning the Super Bowl. The chances for two-in-a row are miniscule, as the Dolphins are on an ugly 0-8 ATS skid in the second half of the season vs. teams winning 75% or more of their games, being outscored by a 32.0-4.5 margin! The Pats are 5-2 SU & 6-1 ATS in their L7 hosting Miami.

The Dolphins are beyond explanation other than to say they are one of the worst teams in league history, a fact proven by their abysmal record but somewhat challenged by the statistics. On defense, the Fins have potential, holding teams to less than 180 passing yards per game. It is on offense where the troubles begin, lacking proven ability at nearly every position on the field and desperate for a sense of purpose that has been missing since RB Ronnie Brown was lost to injury.

On the other side of the field resides a team that will challenge for the title of best ever. The Patriots have dominated in all facets of the game and have yet to need a prolific contribution from the rushing offense. The leadership of QB Tom Brady is unmatched and has led this team to a level of success rarely seen in the NFL. There have been challenges, but it appears this team has persevered and is now ready to charge forward towards historical greatness.

Keys to the Game
Two teams on a collision course, each coming from opposite directions. This contest should break the all-time record for a spread margin in a National Football League game, unless word leaks Miami wants to rest starters (just kidding). The only question of value from this AFC East division contest is who will cover the spread. The Patriots are 12-2 ATS the last seven seasons during the last two weeks of the year. Miami, with its ever-growing problems, will be faced with more questions to be answered than a Democratic debate. There is no debating the Dolphins have failed in the Northeast with 1-6 ATS mark.

Trends
~ Miami is 9-24 ATS in December division tilts.
~ New England is 22-8-1 ATS as a division favorite.

StatFox Edge – Patriots cover